心理资本、组织支持感在职业紧张与过度劳动关系中的作用——基于北京地区外卖骑手的调查

职业紧张导致的过度劳动问题,对劳动者个体、用人单位和社会经济发展均具有负面影响。以北京地区1114名全职外卖骑手为调查对象,基于相关理论和文献研究,采用四种问卷考察了心理资本、组织支持感在职业紧张与过度劳动关系中的作用。调查数据统计分析表明,98.56%的被调查外卖骑手存在职业紧张情况,过劳程度处于危险区和高危区的外卖骑手占比为77.65%。相关性分析与回归分析表明,外卖骑手职业紧张与过度劳动存在明显的正相关关系,同时职业紧张对心理资本有显著的负向影响。中介效应检验表明,心理资本在职业紧张和过度劳动的关系中起到部分中介效应,中介效应占总效应的比例为34.86%。多元层级回归分析表明,组织支持感在职业紧张与过度劳动的关系间起显著的负向调节作用,即外卖骑手感知到的组织支持可以缓解职业紧张对过度劳动的影响。基于上述实证分析,外卖送餐企业可以通过降低工作要求来缓解外卖骑手的职业紧张,尝试对外卖骑手自我效能、乐观、希望和韧性等心理资本的内容进行开发,围绕情感性组织支持、工具性组织支持、上级支持和同事支持等维度,采取相关措施提高员工的组织支持感,以缓解外卖骑手过度劳动现状,促进外卖骑手群体的身心健康。     

Staging a comeback? The influencing mechanism of tourist crowding perception on adaptive behavior

An increasing number of studies have recently elucidated the serious negative effects of tourist crowding. However, how tourists cope with crowding and adopt adaptive responses remains unclear. Thus, this study qualitatively identified the mechanism of tourist crowding perception of adaptive behavior from interviewees and then quantitatively validated the mechanism through the mediation of tourist fatigue and negative emotions, as well as the moderation of peer emotion contagion. Tourists were more likely to return to a destination and engage in temporal replacement behavior through the mediating effect of tourist fatigue, but it was also found that peer emotional contagion interferes with two paths that explain how tourist crowding perception influences tourist emotion change or state variation, impacting adaptive behavior responses. Consequently, we recommend diverting tourists, focusing on alleviating fatigue and negative emotions and channeling the peers’ negative emotions to mitigate the negative impact of tourist crowding.     

跨软弱夹层隧道开挖扰动应力与变形特征分析

随着中国超长隧道的建设，难免会穿越不同构造地层以及一些软弱夹层、断层。软弱夹层本身是一种结构松散、力学性能弱、易变性强存在不同岩层之间的弱性地质结构，在隧道施工过程中，开挖扰动对原岩造成了应力重分布，使得软弱夹层处在不稳定或欠稳定状态，对隧道施工安全具有潜在威胁。因此，通过三维数值计算分析的方法，对跨软弱夹层隧道开挖扰动过程中结构不同部位的应力分布规律以及变形规律进行分析，基于应力、位移分布特征对隧道施工过程提出针对性支护措施，为隧道开挖稳定性研究提供参考。     

New evidence of extreme risk transmission between financial stress and international crude oil markets

We aim to analyze the risk transmission between financial stress and crude oil under different shocks, with applying a novel Granger causality test. Recent works suggest that this risk transmission is mixed, however, scholars mainly focus on their average causality but neglect the extreme causality and its time-varying characteristic. Using the weekly data of the financial stress index and WTI prices spanning from 1994 to 2020, we employ the extreme time-domain and frequency-domain Granger causality test to conduct our research. Results obtained from the time-domain test imply that their causality generally originates from extreme shocks rather than non-extreme shocks, which hasn’t been found before. For further distinguishing the long-run and short-run effects of these shocks, we apply the frequency-domain test and discover that these causalities are mainly found for long the run. Thus, investors and policy-makers may benefit from monitoring financial stress, especially under long-term extreme conditions.     

A time-varying copula approach for constructing a daily financial systemic stress index

This paper develops a financial systemic stress index (FSSI) for the US financial market. We propose a time-varying copula method to model the dependence structure among financial sectors in order to build a correlated financial stress model that can signal systemic financial risks. The copula method is preferable to the traditional approach, enabling the modeling of non-linear correlations. Our analyses show that the dependencies across banking, security, and forex markets are best modeled by Archimedian copulas. Finally, we conduct a Markov Switching Autoregressive (MS-AR) model for FSSI and identify high financial stress episodes taking place in 2008–2009, 2011 and 2020.     

深部岩体地应力测试分析研究

为获取深部岩体地应力分布情况,以东荣二矿为研究背景,本文介绍了常用的地应力测试方法,并着重介绍了应力解除法的测量原理和过程。结果表明:东荣二矿地应力场在量值上属于中等偏高地应力场,巷道两帮受垂直应力影响较大,顶底板受水平应力影响较大。     

The riskiness of outstanding mortgages in the United States, 1999–2019

This article introduces measures of credit risk for all outstanding mortgages in the United States between 1999 and 2019. Terminations play a fundamental role in offsetting risk introduced by new originations because of refinance activity and the often dual nature of home buyers as concurrent sellers. To illustrate these concepts in a policy setting, I show that the Home Affordable Refinance Program increased origination risk metrics but reduced overall risk due to associated terminations of even riskier loans. In addition to these flow dynamics, amortization, loan age, collateral appreciation, and prior selection drive changes to portfolio-level risk.     

The community impact of school-shootings on stress-related emergency department visits

School-shootings can enormously impact U.S. gun policy, but very little is known about the community mental health impact of school-shootings. We used difference-in-differences and event study analyses to compare stress-related ED visits in zip-codes within 5 miles (exposed) and in zip-codes 10–15 miles from (control) school-shootings before and after school-shootings using data from California, 2005–2011. School-shootings and fatal school-shootings were associated with annual increases of 0.7 and 1.5 stress-related ED visits per 1000 people, increases of 7% and 14%, respectively, compared to pre-shooting utilization. These previously unmeasured costs of school-shootings reinforce calls to prevent gun violence, especially in schools.     

Financial stress transmission between the U.S. and the Euro Area

This paper examines financial stress transmission between the U.S. and the Euro Area. To better understand the linkages between financial stress in the two regions, we construct a financial stress index for the U.S. similar to the Composite Indicators of Systemic Stress (CISS) that has been developed for the Euro Area with a focus on systemic risk. Using weekly data from 2000 to 2021 and Granger predictability in distribution test, we analyze stress transmission in “normal” times as well as under unusually high and low stress episodes. While we document unilateral transmission from the U.S. to the Euro Area under normal conditions based on the center of the distribution, tail dependence tests and impulse response analysis show significant bilateral transmission, particularly in unusually high financial stress episodes. This holds true for aggregate indices as well as the subindicators of financial stress in various financial markets. As such, there must be global efforts to contain financial crises and ensure a strong and resilient financial system.     

商业银行动态流动性风险压力测试应用研究

流动性风险是银行面临的最根本风险。压力测试是针对尾部风险的一种定量分析方法，被巴塞尔委员会指定为识别、计量和控制流动性风险的重要工具，并在美国次贷危机爆发后愈发得到重视。首先，参考巴塞尔委员会提出的“流动性覆盖率（LCR）”指标计算方法，以巴塞尔委员会对于标准流动性冲击定义的7个情景作为情景假设基础，基于现金流缺口分析模型构建了流动性风险压力测试模型；然后，以南京银行为例，以2012年末时点数据为基础模拟未来在可能的压力情景下该银行的流动性风险状况；最后，根据压力测试结果，对该银行资产负债结构的合理性进行